Last week, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage saw off Count Binface in the Clacton by-election. Farage received 22,239 votes, 1,014 more than his winning total at the 2024 general election, and turnout was 44%. On the surface, winning 63.34% looks good and signals confidence; in reality, this was not a good result. Ultimately, Farage’s decision to resign and trigger this by-election has not paid off. In fact, it has brought him even more scrutiny and bad optics.

Farage triggered the by-election in July after the Guardian revealed in April 2024 that he had received a £5m personal gift from Christopher Harborne, a Thailand-based crypto billionaire. Following this revelation, he had been hounded by questions about his financial backing. The parliamentary standards watchdog announced it was opening a formal investigation into gifts received by Farage. This undermined his central premise and political strategy, which are anti-establishment. He therefore triggered the by-election in an attempt to take control of the narrative. He said that the “people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions”, and he billed the fight as a “people versus the establishment” by-election.

Defenders of the Reform leader will say that the criticism is unfair because he received the gift before he became an MP. Farage himself said there was “no obligation” to declare a £5m gift he received from a billionaire backer before he became an MP. However, the House of Commons code of conduct states that new MPs “must register all their current financial interests, and any registrable benefits (other than earnings) received in the 12 months before their election within one month of their election”. Therefore, Labour and other rival parties had every right to accuse Farage of breaking parliamentary rules. 

Transparency and accountability are key pillars of British democracy. There are robust mechanisms in place to ensure that these values are upheld. Trying to use a by-election to obviate the formal investigation was a poor choice because Parliamentary rules dictate that an active inquiry by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards pauses upon resignation, but immediately reactivates the moment the individual returns to the House of Commons. After winning the by-election on Friday morning, the Standards watchdog resumed its investigation. Farage clearly misread the strength of the country’s political institutions.

Winning a majority in Clacton should not mean that the issue of his financial backing is settled. Ultimately, that is not how our system works. If you have infringed parliamentary rules, it is for parliamentary watchdogs and commissioners to investigate whether they think there has been wrongdoing and reach their own conclusion. Because of this, Farage’s, and therefore Reform’s, political future hangs in the balance.

If parliament imposes sanctions for failing to declare the gifts, Farage may be suspended from the House of Commons and potentially face a second by-election. This recent by-election is estimated to have cost the taxpayer £250,000. Reform UK offered to cover the costs of organising the poll, but political parties are barred from doing so to maintain the independence and impartiality of the electoral process. Therefore, the potential of another one could make them even less favourable with people.

The way the election played out also did no favours for Farage and Reform. Farage claimed that this election would be the people vs the establishment, but many of the established parties decided not to partake in this show. Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems and the Greens all declined to field candidates and take part in what they called a “media circus” and “vanity project”. Because of this, Farage’s main competition was Count Binface, the self-declared “entirely independent space warrior” created by the comedian Jon Harvey. He was able to run because, in the UK, almost anyone can run for parliament – only a £500 deposit and 10 supporters of the bid are needed. The optics of this for Farage weren’t great. 

The parody candidate won 9455 votes, or one in four of the votes cast. In his “victory speech” posted on X, he said that this was a 10,000% increase on the 95 votes he managed against Andy Burnham in the Makerfield byelection. The fact that a novelty candidate won 26.9% of the vote share suggests that many people were dissatisfied with Nigel Farage and his financial controversies. Count Binface effectively consolidated the anti-reform turnout and humiliated Farage.

Farage did not attend the official vote count and cancelled a planned victory speech. Reform UK said police had told him not to attend because of a “credible threat” against him, although Essex police contradicted this claim. The Liberal Democrats said Farage had come away from the by-election “looking daft”.

All of this has come against the backdrop of a new national government. Labour leader Andy Burnham is already proving more popular than his predecessor Keir Starmer. There is early evidence of something of a Burnham bounce for Labour, which has disrupted Reform’s long-standing lead in the opinion polls. This, coupled with the renewed focus on Farage’s 5m gift and the growing threat of Restore Britain, has put serious doubts on Reform’s long-term viability.