Category: Analysis

  • Andy Burnham’s Sport-Centred Communications Have Backfired

    Andy Burnham’s Sport-Centred Communications Have Backfired

    Andy Burnham has been praised for his communications strategy since becoming Prime Minister. Through his digital-first approach, combined with engagement with traditional media, he has reached millions of voters and projected an image of authenticity and relatability. His speech at this year’s Labour Party conference was praised for its exceptional emotional delivery and his authentic “everyman” stage presence.

    Something that has been a part of this positive image is his relationship with football. Burnham has leaned into the Mamdani playbook by using sports to show authenticity and communicate his politics. He recently appeared on the popular YouTube series Shirt Shopping with Ellis Platten, using a backdrop of classic football kits at Classic Football Shirts in Manchester to connect personal memories with community-focused politics. 

    He recognises that Football is culturally significant, and it gives him a way of speaking to people outside the traditional political bubble. His identity as an Everton supporter gives him an authenticity that many politicians struggle to manufacture. His knowledge of football allows him to communicate in a language that feels less formal and more culturally familiar.

    This strategy did not work for his predecessor, Keir Starmer. Starmer was a well-known Arsenal fan, but his passion for the game did not translate into political capital because, ultimately, it was unbelievable. Starmer’s attempts to use football to build a “man of the people” persona often backfired. Whilst Andy Burnham’s love of football seems more genuine, his sports-centric communications are starting to backfire. Recent comments and policy ideas have dampened his image as an authentic football fan and have drawn significant criticism.

    His first misstep began last week when he signalled that he may lift the ban on drinking alcohol in the stands at football matches. This ban has been in place in the top 5 tiers of men’s football since 1985, when fears over football hooliganism and violence were at their peak. This ban applies only to football, and so in other sports such as rugby and cricket, drinking in view of the pitch is allowed. Andy Burnham believes this to be unfair and outdated.

    The prime minister said: “I don’t think it’s fair for football fans to be singled out in that way.”

    “I think that legislation dates to an era where football was very different, and I do believe there is a case to remove that discrimination,” he added. He also said: “There are different ways it could be done, perhaps on a trial basis. But I’m not going to back away from what’s been a long-held view of mine. I don’t see how it can be fair that some supporters of one sport can be treated differently.”

    The response to this idea wasn’t what the Prime Minister would have hoped for. It is understandable why he thought this would score him political points; drinking is a massive part of UK football culture, and so having to wait until half-time to grab a pint without missing the match creates a logistical bottleneck. However, he failed to understand modern stadium demographics, where many newer fans and families value the current safety protocols. A YouGov poll found that 64 per cent of people oppose him, while more than half think it would make the match-day experience worse. Many fans cited concerns about family-friendly atmospheres being ruined, spilt beer, and constant disruptions from people leaving their seats.

    The UK Football Policing Unit said it would be “incredibly rash” to change the rules without proper consultation. “Other sports simply don’t see the violence and criminal behaviour from their supporters that football does, albeit a minority, with alcohol often playing a significant part in violent and disorderly behaviour,” it said. In attempting to use football to look like a “man of the people”, Andy Burnham has scored a major political own goal by misreading the very supporters he is trying to appeal to.

    Burnham’s insistence that this is a policy matchgoers want illustrates what happens when a politician’s desire to appear culturally in touch gets ahead of reality. To make matters worse for the Prime Minister, his recent comments on Manchester City’s ownership have done him no favours. Football fans and journalists have suggested that Burnham communicated his stance on the club’s guilty verdicts poorly, with many labelling his statement as wrong and unimpressive.

    On Wednesday, the Premier League confirmed that Manchester City were found guilty of all charges related to breaches of Premier League financial rules between the 2009-10 and 2017-18 seasons. An independent commission ruled that the club systematically engaged in a disguised funding scheme through “sham” commercial deals between 2009 and 2018. The club has continued to deny any wrongdoing. While no official punishments have been finalised, the verdict leaves the club facing unprecedented sanctions as rival clubs push for extreme penalties. Some fans and pundits have questioned how the club’s owners can remain if they deliberately breached rules over nine years.

    When asked about Manchester City’s owners potentially having to sell the club, Burnham said on Wednesday: “I would be really concerned to lose them”. “They’ve been such a huge partner in the building of modern Manchester and obviously the building of Manchester City into the global force that it is.” He added: “I do actually thank the City Football Group and the wider ownership for the money that they didn’t just put into the Etihad [Stadium] and the campus around it but also into the city.”

    These comments have not landed well at all. There is no doubt that what he said is true. The foreign investment from the owners has brought significant benefits to Manchester. Given that he served as Mayor of Greater Manchester until June, his remarks are not surprising. However, they represent a massive communication misstep because he failed to consider how they could be negatively interpreted.

    His comments have been interpreted as being sympathetic towards the City owners. He has created the impression that the economic and civic benefits associated with Manchester City’s ownership are being prioritised when scrutiny of that ownership is at its greatest. Ultimately, a sitting Prime Minister expressing concern over the departure of owners who systematically breached financial rules undermines the credibility of the sport and the rule of law. Considering millions of voters are also football fans, this communications misstep carries massive political risk.

    His saying “I am not getting directly involved” also hasn’t helped. He may not think he is getting involved; however, realistically, he was getting involved by making these comments because they, whether intentional or not, put political pressure on the Premier League. Football governance is no longer operating in isolation from international politics. Football fans have argued that his statements show how sportswashing successfully influences politics: state-backed owners intentionally inject vast sums of money into local infrastructure precisely to buy political goodwill.

    Thus, Andy Burnham’s strategy of using sports-centred communications to connect with voters has backfired. Instead of looking like a relatable fan, he looked like a politician in the pockets of billionaire club owners, a toxic image for millions of voters who want a leader to stand up for the average person, not the elite. 

  • How Andy Burnham Is Reshaping Communications In British Politics

    How Andy Burnham Is Reshaping Communications In British Politics

    A lot of politics and news today is consumed through social media platforms. People are glued to their tablets and phones. Print and other traditional media are dying as trust in them is low. Politicians, therefore, need to have a strong online presence to communicate with voters and engage audiences. Trust in politics in general is low, and so people need to feel connected to their leaders.

    Since Andy Burnham became UK Prime Minister, one thing has clearly distinguished his approach from that of his predecessor: his communications strategy. Unlike Keir Starmer, Burnham has adopted a digital-first approach to connect with voters and create an authentic, relatable image.

    Instead of relying primarily on traditional media and the Westminster lobby, Burnham has made social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram central to his political communications. Burnham has bypassed traditional media filters and speaks directly to citizens. He has adopted a similar approach to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, collaborating with various influencers to communicate his policies. Informal video formats and direct-to-camera messaging have helped the Prime Minister reach audiences who may never watch a political press conference or read a government press release. By doing this, he has effectively reached a wider demographic and increased public trust.

    A good communications strategy will not completely solve the issue of public trust. Ultimately, the success of Burnham’s government will be down to its actions, real results for the public, and honest delivery of its promises over time. Nonetheless, a good communications strategy can help to build confidence and maintain public trust. Many have argued that Keir Starmer’s poor communication strategy is partly why he was so unpopular and consequently resigned. Keir Starmer did not completely disregard digital channels when communicating his government policies; he simply went about it the wrong way.

    Politicians, particularly in British politics, use social media only to broadcast a scripted message. They regurgitate the same information, just on a different platform. They do not engage with the real people on these platforms. This leaves people feeling unable to connect with political leaders, as it creates the idea that they are detached from the everyday concerns of ordinary people.

    What makes Burnham so different and so effective is that he is engaging authentically with his audience. He and his team understand that people do not want to read a caption that has gone through several rounds of editing. When people go to Instagram or TikTok, they are not going there to consume policy; they go to consume people. Burnham recognises this and has adapted his content to the native behaviours of each platform.

    A good example of this is when he teamed up with Bemi Orojuogun (Bus Aunty) to announce the £2 bus fare cap. It got over 2.1 million views and nearly 79k likes because it felt natural to the platform, not forced. It was a smart way of communicating a policy that will affect people’s pockets. In the past, political leaders would’ve used TV stars and other celebrities to get a message like this out. This has shifted to online influencers, as they are seen as more authentic and trusted by voters who have abandoned traditional news media.

    The perception of Burnham as a strong online communicator clearly aligns with the data. In June, ahead of the Makerfield by-election, he launched his TikTok account and has gained over 450,000 followers since. In the last month, his videos were viewed more than 34 million times, six times the views generated by Nigel Farage. The sentiment towards the Prime Minister online is increasingly positive. LBC classified more than 175,000 comments left on Burnham’s videos and found that net sentiment towards him has risen steadily over the past four weeks.

    Another smart way he has used social media is by directly talking to people in a way that feels real and natural. A good example of this is when a user named Saz commented, asking him not to visit Heron House, No. 10 North, on a specific date because it was her wedding day; he replied: “Noted, Saz.” He congratulated her in a video sent during her wedding. It is rare for a Prime Minister to jump in on a viral joke like that, and for many people it is refreshing. It makes him appear relatable; a deliberate contrast with Keir Starmer’s more rigid, institutional presence.

    Following his first Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs), he launched his own version on his social media, People’s Major Questions. In this, he answers questions directly from the public, further enhancing his relationship with them. In less than 24 hours, the video garnered over 600,000 views, suggesting that this is the type of content people want to see.

    Critics have argued that by relying so heavily on social media, he might be evading proper scrutiny and real debate. This is a weak argument. Just because he is prioritising digital channels does not mean he is ignoring traditional media. He has embraced traditional media by adopting an integrated approach. Alongside his activity on social media, he has undertaken selected longer-form interviews, including a sit-down BBC Panorama interview with Laura Kuenssberg, signalling that he is willing to engage with hard questions.

    Nonetheless, the media is not the only form of scrutiny and accountability. The UK’s robust parliamentary system means that Andy Burnham will inevitably face intense, non-negotiable institutional scrutiny as Prime Minister. Ultimately, no communications approach, whether that be digital or traditional, can shield him from the constitutional mechanisms of Parliament.

  • How Zohran Mamdani Uses Sports To Communicate His Politics

    How Zohran Mamdani Uses Sports To Communicate His Politics

    Sport brings people together through a shared love and joy. It provides a source of comfort and ease for millions around the world. It isn’t just entertainment, though– it can also be used as a powerful political tool. Politicians can use sport to build community, connect with ordinary voters and communicate their political values. It has often been underutilised as a political tool because it can be hard for politicians to convey genuine passion and interest. New York mayor Zohran Mamdani, however, is challenging this idea. He is proving to be a great model for using this tool. Mamdani has embraced football and basketball not only as a fan, but as part of how he connects with the public. This has been important to his political strategy and public perception.

    Before Mamdani was elected New York City Mayor, he made his sporting allegiances no secret. Through his social media, many people quickly learnt that he is a massive Arsenal fan and New York Knicks fan. Instead of ignoring this passion, he embraced it and made it a central piece of his political identity. Through his love of sports, particularly football, a working-class game, he has been able to communicate several policies as well as his socialist values.

    His relationship with it goes beyond mere interest. His deep knowledge of both Arsenal and the New York Knicks has helped him cultivate an image of an “everyman” politician; someone who understands the highs and lows of supporting a team because he has experienced them himself. This authenticity is important. Often, politicians fail in attempts to appear more connected to ordinary voters by associating themselves with popular sports. This is because these attempts can easily feel performative. Mamdani’s sporting identity, however, clearly predates his political career. When Arsenal were in their ‘banter era ’, Mamdani was tweeting about it. Earlier this year, he celebrated their Premier League success.

    This connection Mamdani has with football has allowed him to use sport to communicate progressive politics. Whilst sport tends to be used by politicians to distract from domestic issues and boost national pride, Zohran Mamdani has used it to challenge corporate greed and combat high living costs- issues at the heart of his political agenda. During his mayoral campaign, he launched the “Game Over Greed” petition. This challenged FIFA’s approach to ticket pricing for the 2026 World Cup games. He criticised dynamic pricing and called for limits on resale prices and affordable tickets for residents. By doing this, he was sending a strong message that the world’s biggest sporting event should not be hijacked by corporate greed and be inaccessible to the people living in the cities hosting it. 

    By calling out FIFA in this way, Mamdani was able to translate a political argument about corporate power and affordability into something tangible for ordinary people. Instead of talking about the cost-of-living crisis in purely economic terms, he pointed to something millions of people understand immediately: being priced out of watching your team play. The World Cup is supposed to be a time of unity and jubilation. People should not feel excluded, and it should not be inaccessible. Mamdani successfully used football as a vehicle for his wider argument that essential experiences should not be reserved for those who can afford the most.

    As mayor, he worked with FIFA to secure 1,000 World Cup tickets priced at $50, while also establishing more than 100 free public viewing events for New Yorkers and visitors. These initiatives were important because they allowed the World Cup to function as more than just entertainment. Through these spaces, people were able to gather, celebrate and develop a shared sense of civic identity.

    Earlier this week, he secured 1,000 affordable tickets to the US Open, allowing more New Yorkers to watch elite-level tennis, making the US Open Main Draw more accessible to New York City residents.

    While politicians on the left such as Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have occasionally engaged with sport, it has rarely been central to their political identities. Mamdani appears to have recognised that sport offers an opportunity to reach people beyond traditional political spaces. His approach is particularly significant because sport has often been associated with the political right. Politicians have used football to appeal to ideas of patriotism, national identity and traditional culture. This has been seen in Britain, where Nigel Farage, leader of the right-wing party Reform UK, has previously argued that football and politics should remain separate before releasing Reform-branded football merchandise.

    Mamdani is not using sports to be divisive. Rather, he is attempting to associate it with affordability, accessibility, community and collective identity. Authenticity is the strategy.

    Perhaps the most important part of Mamdani’s approach is that he does not appear to be manufacturing a sporting personality for political purposes.

  • The Clacton By-Election Has Done No Favours For Farage

    The Clacton By-Election Has Done No Favours For Farage

    Last week, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage saw off Count Binface in the Clacton by-election. Farage received 22,239 votes, 1,014 more than his winning total at the 2024 general election, and turnout was 44%. On the surface, winning 63.34% looks good and signals confidence; in reality, this was not a good result. Ultimately, Farage’s decision to resign and trigger this by-election has not paid off. In fact, it has brought him even more scrutiny and bad optics.

    Farage triggered the by-election in July after the Guardian revealed in April 2024 that he had received a £5m personal gift from Christopher Harborne, a Thailand-based crypto billionaire. Following this revelation, he had been hounded by questions about his financial backing. The parliamentary standards watchdog announced it was opening a formal investigation into gifts received by Farage. This undermined his central premise and political strategy, which are anti-establishment. He therefore triggered the by-election in an attempt to take control of the narrative. He said that the “people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions”, and he billed the fight as a “people versus the establishment” by-election.

    Defenders of the Reform leader will say that the criticism is unfair because he received the gift before he became an MP. Farage himself said there was “no obligation” to declare a £5m gift he received from a billionaire backer before he became an MP. However, the House of Commons code of conduct states that new MPs “must register all their current financial interests, and any registrable benefits (other than earnings) received in the 12 months before their election within one month of their election”. Therefore, Labour and other rival parties had every right to accuse Farage of breaking parliamentary rules. 

    Transparency and accountability are key pillars of British democracy. There are robust mechanisms in place to ensure that these values are upheld. Trying to use a by-election to obviate the formal investigation was a poor choice because Parliamentary rules dictate that an active inquiry by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards pauses upon resignation, but immediately reactivates the moment the individual returns to the House of Commons. After winning the by-election on Friday morning, the Standards watchdog resumed its investigation. Farage clearly misread the strength of the country’s political institutions.

    Winning a majority in Clacton should not mean that the issue of his financial backing is settled. Ultimately, that is not how our system works. If you have infringed parliamentary rules, it is for parliamentary watchdogs and commissioners to investigate whether they think there has been wrongdoing and reach their own conclusion. Because of this, Farage’s, and therefore Reform’s, political future hangs in the balance.

    If parliament imposes sanctions for failing to declare the gifts, Farage may be suspended from the House of Commons and potentially face a second by-election. This recent by-election is estimated to have cost the taxpayer £250,000. Reform UK offered to cover the costs of organising the poll, but political parties are barred from doing so to maintain the independence and impartiality of the electoral process. Therefore, the potential of another one could make them even less favourable with people.

    The way the election played out also did no favours for Farage and Reform. Farage claimed that this election would be the people vs the establishment, but many of the established parties decided not to partake in this show. Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems and the Greens all declined to field candidates and take part in what they called a “media circus” and “vanity project”. Because of this, Farage’s main competition was Count Binface, the self-declared “entirely independent space warrior” created by the comedian Jon Harvey. He was able to run because, in the UK, almost anyone can run for parliament – only a £500 deposit and 10 supporters of the bid are needed. The optics of this for Farage weren’t great. 

    The parody candidate won 9455 votes, or one in four of the votes cast. In his “victory speech” posted on X, he said that this was a 10,000% increase on the 95 votes he managed against Andy Burnham in the Makerfield byelection. The fact that a novelty candidate won 26.9% of the vote share suggests that many people were dissatisfied with Nigel Farage and his financial controversies. Count Binface effectively consolidated the anti-reform turnout and humiliated Farage.

    Farage did not attend the official vote count and cancelled a planned victory speech. Reform UK said police had told him not to attend because of a “credible threat” against him, although Essex police contradicted this claim. The Liberal Democrats said Farage had come away from the by-election “looking daft”.

    All of this has come against the backdrop of a new national government. Labour leader Andy Burnham is already proving more popular than his predecessor Keir Starmer. There is early evidence of something of a Burnham bounce for Labour, which has disrupted Reform’s long-standing lead in the opinion polls. This, coupled with the renewed focus on Farage’s 5m gift and the growing threat of Restore Britain, has put serious doubts on Reform’s long-term viability.

  • Save Brick Lane Campaigners say ‘No to Dirty Data Centres’ at SXSW Festival

    Save Brick Lane Campaigners say ‘No to Dirty Data Centres’ at SXSW Festival

    Last week, several ‘Save Brick Lane’ campaigners gathered outside the Truman Brewery before making their way to the entrance of the SXSW festival to reaffirm their opposition to the proposed construction of a data centre in the area.

    ​The Truman Brewery is a historic site in Brick Lane and an important part of the local community. Since closing down in 1989 after being one of the world’s largest breweries, it has transformed into East London’s revolutionary arts and media quarter. However, its owners, the Zeloof family, now want to turn this quarter into a data centre.

    ​The proposed £500 million redevelopment scheme would see five new buildings providing offices, shops, restaurants, a cinema and a market as well as the data centre. Also included in the proposals are 44 new homes, but only 11 would be designated affordable, and only six would be available for social rent.

    London is a prime location for data centres due to its proximity to the country’s financial district, as shorter physical distances between traders and data centres mean that instructions can be processed faster, which gives traders a competitive advantage in an industry where milliseconds matter. Tower Hamlets is home to the UK’s largest financial district, Canary Wharf, and so it is no surprise that these plans for the borough have been proposed.

    The SXSW festival is an annual festival for music, film and technology. This year, it was hosted by the Truman Brewery and platformed those embracing the AI boom. The rapid growth of AI in recent years has also contributed to the increased demand for data centres, as the technology needs these centres to become more efficient.

    Campaigners felt compelled to protest the event and bring more awareness to the consequences of the proposed data centre.

    The ‘Save Brick Lane’ campaign is highlighting the damage that would be done to the community if a data centre were built, and pushing for the construction of more social housing instead.

    Tower Hamlets has over 28,000 families on the council housing waiting list. An alternative proposal has shown that the site could help provide 350 new homes. A data centre would seriously harm the community, given the large amounts of energy and water they consume.

    ​We have seen these consequences in the US, where residents in rural Georgia have had their water turn murky with sediment, their water pressure decrease, their appliances stop working, and an expected increase in their water bills following the construction of Meta’s data centre in the area. As a result, data centres are becoming a crucial aspect of the political climate in the US; thus, it was only a matter of time before it came over here, and much like the US, communities aren’t going down without a fight.

    ​I spoke about this with Oliver Hayes, a campaigner for Global Action Plan, a climate change charity. I asked him why he was campaigning and what he was hoping to achieve.

    “We’re here in the heart of East London, where Truman Estates want to redevelop the iconic Truman Brewery, not for homes, which the local community has been crying out for, but instead for a data centre, and that is just typical of what we’re seeing across the country”, he told me.

    Global Action Plan is calling for a moratorium on data centres given the immense cost they end up having on communities: “Data centres are using all of the available grid connections which means that housing projects cant get finished, people cant move into new homes.

    We know that the vast majority of these data centres are not doing useful things, some of them are, but the majority are chatbots, slop machines, grok deepfakes, this is not critical technology”.

    I also asked him about the situation with data centres in the US and how that is now seeping into British politics, and he pointed to the strong resistance taking place in America that he is confident will catch on here in the UK.

    “The politics of it[data centres in the US], that is fascinating, is that across the board there is opposition, no one wants this, once people see what happens to their community, whether they’re a red state or a blue state they don’t want it, and I think that is coming here to the UK because it doesn’t bring any benefits”.

    I later spoke to Susana Kow, a Tower Hamlets resident of 10 years, who told me about how what started as a campaign for more social housing had transformed into one opposing data centres, given the negative impact they would have on an already bad housing crisis. She stressed that the onus was on housing minister Steve Reed:

    “We need social housing, so what is his decision going to be, is he gonna approve the data centre and ignore the housing crisis?, We hope not, so a word to Steve Reed is, please make the right decision.

    There are better things to be built to preserve the culture and the heritage and to protect independent shops”.

    Tower Hamlets has a strong Bangladeshi and immigrant population, who were integral to shaping the culture of the borough that we see today. I spoke to Shah Ashmina, a member of Nijjor Manush, a socialist organisation for Bengalis and Bangladeshis based in Britain, who was also present at the protest.

    “This area of Tower Hamlets has been a refuge for immigrants since the 1800s; it has been a diverse and working-class area for eons. The culture that is so coveted by corporations and ‘developers’ was built by Jewish immigrants, Bengali immigrants and working-class East Enders. The authenticity that makes Brick Lane so vibrant and fashionable belongs to the community. It belongs to the workers in the garment factories, the brick makers and the fishmongers. The reason that real estate in this area is so profitable is because of cultural capital made by working-class immigrants”.

    ​On the proposals for the data centre, she echoed the message of the other campaigners I spoke with:  

    “The plans for this development put forward by the Truman Brewery ignore the needs of the community brazenly. Tower Hamlets is one of the local authorities with the highest levels of homelessness…. What they want to do to this community is not redevelopment, it is social cleansing.

    The people who created the soul of Brick Lane are being priced out, so what happens when they have been replaced? How can Banglatown survive when Bengalis can’t afford it anymore? Brick Lane’s history is anti-capitalist, anti fascist and anti racist. From the Battle of Cable Street until now, Brick Lane belongs to working-class immigrants”.

    While it remains unclear whether those in Westminster will take heed of the growing concerns and opposition to data centres from local communities, what is clear is that the Save Brick Lane campaign is one that is growing and will continue to grow so long as corporations are prioritised over communities.

    ​

  • Local Election Results: Why Reform UK’s Local Success Is Not a National Certainty

    Local Election Results: Why Reform UK’s Local Success Is Not a National Certainty

    Much of the discussion that has followed last week’s local elections has centred on Reform’s staggering success. The party’s increased support saw them win 1453 councillors and take control of councils from Labour, including Barnsley, Wakefield, Sunderland and Gateshead.

    For many of Reforms critics, these results are discouraging. To them, it indicates that the UK is moving towards a dangerous path of far-right politics characterised by exclusion and intolerance. Several of the elected Reform candidates are already under fire due to racist, Islamophobic, and anti-Semitic comments and social media posts.

    While the results were an enormous feat for the party, a closer look at these results paints a picture that not enough people are talking about.

    Within hours of the polling stations closing, multiple media outlets were declaring victory for Reform. They were suggesting even more potential success at the next general election. In an interview about Reform’s electoral success, Sky News’s Beth Rigby even asked Farage if he sees himself as a Prime Minister in waiting.

    These results are favourable for the Reforms’ hopes of forming a government. However, leaving it at this conclusion is somewhat of an oversimplification of the results. To properly understand these results and what they mean, we first need to understand what local elections are and how they work.

    How do the local elections work?
    Local councils provide the facilities and services in your area. The type of council you have, and the responsibilities they have, vary depending on where you live. Local councillors oversee the council’s work, setting the strategies and priorities. Things such as council tax, local services, planning, local climate change commitments, and policing commitments are all overseen by the local council. Within this are issues such as roads, potholes, maintaining public spaces, affordable housing, bin collection, etc., and these tend to be the most concerning issues for voters at these elections.

    Boroughs across the country are divided into areas called wards, and in each ward, residents can vote for as many council seats as are contested. The candidate you vote for does not have to be attached to a political party, and you can vote for a mix of candidates. In most London boroughs, the council leader is chosen by the political group with the most councillors. In the five boroughs—Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham and Tower Hamlets— residents can also vote for a mayor as well as their ward councillors.

    If a party dominates the seats in one borough, it takes control of the council; if there is no outright majority, then the borough has no overall control, and coalitions are formed.


    Turnout at local elections tends to be lower than in general elections because voters’ priorities differ. A vote for a particular candidate in a local election does not guarantee a vote for the party they represent in national elections.

    ‘Get Starmer Out’
    This particular local election revealed misconceptions surrounding local elections and how they work. This is something that Nigel Farage and his party took advantage of. The central messaging of Reforms campaign was to oust Prime Minister Keir Starmer and to take control of illegal immigration.

    According to YouGov, Reform voters were the exception when it came to the typical local issues that tend to be most important to voters, with immigration being their number one local issue. Immigration, however, is typically a national issue, and so major changes can only be made through the national government. There were even some Reform voters left confused when they did not see Farage on their ballots. Reform UK were therefore able to successfully campaign on national issues to mobilise voters at the local level. Perhaps this is because they aren’t delivering on their promises for the local councils already in their control, and so stoking fear over national issues was a more beneficial tactic.

    How are Councils Already Under Reforms Control Faring?
    Despite promising to cut council tax, the Reform-led council in Kent voted through a 3.99% council tax increase, one percentage point under the limit before a referendum is required.

    In Derbyshire, the Reform-led council planned to shut eight care homes, but it was eventually abandoned following backlash. In West Northamptonshire, there has been a sharp increase in complaints about potholes since Reform took power.

    In the past year, the party has lost more than 70 of its elected local councillors, according to research by Liberal Democrat peer Mark Pack, with some being sacked or forced to resign.

    It appears that cracks are already forming, and there is a chance that the party will self-implode. Their local success puts pressure on them because they are now expected to deliver, and if they don’t, the blame may shift towards them. Their present success may have long-term consequences. As of now, there are still 3 years until the next general election, and so failure at the local level could cause resentment nationally.

    Farage’s ‘Cause for Concern’
    Furthermore, the local election results show that a large majority of the population did not actually vote for Reform. In the overall vote share, Reform received around 26%.

    Pollster Peter Kellner said that, despite the significant gains, there is cause for Nigel Farage to be “privately worried”.

    In an article on Substack, Kellner wrote that: “In last year’s local elections, Reform won 41% of all seats contested across England.

    “On the basis of the overnight figures, this year’s tally is around 33%.

    “If there were no polls, and there had been no elections last year, this year’s figure would be astonishing.

    “But we do have the record on recent polls and elections, and it seems clear that Reform has peaked.”

    He added, “Under first-past-the-post, this matters. Our voting system helped Reform last year, when it won a much higher proportion of seats than votes.

    “Its support is now at the point where that bonus has started to shrink. If more voters desert the party, it could suffer badly – falling short in many councils and parliamentary seats that it would have won last year.”

    Additionally while Reform dominated the number of seats won, Labour still had the most overall control of the councils with 28. In contrast, Reform had 14, more than the Conservatives with 9 but less than the Liberal Democrats with 15.

    Therefore, as it stands, if there were a general election, Reform would fail to win a majority, resulting in a hung parliament. In this outcome, they would have to enter a coalition.

    Historic Strides for Greens not Just Reform
    The downward trend in support for Reform indicates a potential ceiling, whereas the Green Party’s gains suggest a burgeoning political force.

    The Greens didn’t see the numbers that Reform did. Some experts have even said they didn’t do as well as expected. However, they have taken great strides and can continue to build upon their success. Unlike Reform’s politics of exclusion and division, the Green Party is offering hope to voters, a genuine alternative to Labour, and this can be seen through their results.

    Polling expert Sir John Curtice said the Greens had recorded their “best-ever performance”, with their projected national vote share being 18% as he revealed the projected national share of the vote for Britain, behind Reform but ahead of Labour and the Tories, who were both on 17% and the Liberal Democrats on 16%.

    Winning 587 seats, they took control of Norwich, Hastings and the London borough of Waltham Forest, as well as winning the mayoral contests in Hackney and Lewisham—former Labour strongholds— for the first time.

    Speaking after the Hackney mayoralty victory, Green Party Leader Zack Polanski said: “Two-party politics is not just dying, it is dead, and it is buried.

    “And actually, whether it’s here that Labour have been rejected, or whether we’re seeing around the country, it’s very clear that the new politics is the Green Party versus Reform.”

    Another incredible statistic for the Greens from this election is that they received 1.95 million votes (excluding mayoral votes). This is approximately 1 million more than their best record in 2023. It also means that more people voted for them at this year’s local elections than at the 2024 general election, which is a remarkable outcome.

    It is clear to see that the picture hasn’t been fully completed yet; there is still a long way to go until the next election, and so much can happen in that time. Starmer may very well be ousted, but that would result in a Labour Party leadership contest rather than a general election. There are positives that Reform can take from this election, but the pressure is now on them to deliver for their residents. Looking at the results at face value can feel somewhat demoralising for those fearing Reform’s rise. However, a closer look reveals that their future national electoral victory is nowhere near guaranteed, and there is still room for hope to prevail.

  • A Look Ahead At The Local Elections With Young Councilor Cylcia Manwa

    A Look Ahead At The Local Elections With Young Councilor Cylcia Manwa

    The local elections are taking place today, and with the pending results, it can be easy to get wrapped up in the party politics of it all. However, given the importance of representation in politics, it is important to remember that there are many individual candidates within these parties looking to represent the people in their area. And so I decided to speak with Cylcia Manwa, a 22-year-old councillor for Thurrock, who is running for re-election, to get her unique perspective on what it’s like to be a young councillor and how she hopes to build on her achievements and further deliver for the residents of Thurrock. 

    I started by asking Cylcia about her campaign and what she thinks are the biggest issues facing Thurrock.

    To this, she replied: “I think the biggest issue facing people in Thurrock is one that we are seeing across the country – the cost of living crisis. With soaring fuel prices, bills and the price of everyday items rising too, that’s definitely a challenge for people across the borough.  For our campaign, we are focusing on getting everyday services right for people, and reducing the council’s debt”.

    Being so young, it can be intimidating to enter such an intense space of politics. Given the issues her residents face, it may be easy to underestimate her ability as a young councillor. However, Cylcia cites her age as one of her unique strengths.

    “I think being a young candidate means you can get underestimated at times, as some people use my age to suggest I’m not capable of doing my role as a councillor. But I think my age is actually my strength – I’m able to connect and represent a demographic that doesn’t always get a say in our local government, and I know that age is by no means a determining factor for competency. I think my record over the past few years is proof enough that young people can hold positions of leadership, and do a good job at it, too!”

    In her role as a councillor, she has also worked on projects that centre on young people and help their development. She proves to be a stellar example of the importance of young people in politics, given that their concerns can often be overlooked in a space where their representation is the exception.

    “I’ve supported the building of a local Youth Zone, which should be completed by early next year – it will give young people in our community access to state-of-the-art sports facilities, extracurricular activities and a space where they can safely enjoy themselves and make new friendships. That’s something I’m really excited about”.

    Looking back on all her achievements so far she shares what she hopes to continue doing if she is chosen by voters once again.

    “In the 3 years I have served, I have sat on several committees advocating for the community, held surgeries and spoken to residents, and helped residents through casework. I bring a fresh perspective as a young person in the borough, and I hope to continue doing that, should I be re-elected”. 

    “I want to continue being a champion for underrepresented communities, and especially with the rhetoric of the far right seeping into our politics, I want to lead with a vision of hope that unites our local community instead of dividing it”.

    No matter their result, it is clear that Cylcia is an inspiration to young people, especially young black women and girls seeking political careers. She has done so much for someone so young and will only continue to do greater things as her career progresses.

  • Could the Local Elections be the End for Starmer?

    Could the Local Elections be the End for Starmer?

    Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership has been anything but smooth sailing; if anything, he has been tiptoeing on the edge of his demise for a large majority of it. It does, however, feel as though the end could be near for him, as the local elections that are set to take place this week may be the final nail in the coffin.

    What do the polls say?

    The polls for the upcoming elections do not paint a pretty picture for Labour, with several expected losses. Pollsters have predicted that the party could lose an astonishing 1850 council seats.

    A potential outcome of such a loss of seats is the party losing control of the Welsh Parliament, the Senedd, which it has dominated since its creation in 1999.

    Polling shows Labour’s vote share in Wales falling by more than half. This would push them into third place with Reform and Plaid Cymru competing for first.

    Starmer already has the poorest local election performance of modern prime ministers, losing 66% of seats in 2025. This year could be even worse, with projections suggesting a 74% loss of seats. Such a catastrophic result will put immense pressure on the PM and raise several questions about the future and viability of his leadership.

    Rumblings of a Leadership Contest

    There have already been rumblings around the Labour Party that candidates are lining up to take the Prime Minister’s place. According to the Telegraph, Health Secretary Wes Streeting is ready to launch a leadership contest, having secured the 81 MPs needed to trigger a contest.

    The PM was reportedly made aware of Streeting’s potential plans after a staff member accidentally texted details of his plans.

    Streeting denied these plans, reportedly dismissing them as a “fishing expedition” by journalists in a WhatsApp chat of Labour MPs.

    Additionally, a spokesperson for the Health Secretary told the Telegraph, “Wes has said repeatedly that he supports the Prime Minister.

    “He is completely focused on his job, in which he has cut waiting lists to their lowest level for three years and got ambulances arriving faster than for half a decade.”

    Additionally, Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham are emerging as potential opponents.

    There have been reports that Burnham is preparing another attempt at securing a Commons seat to oust Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader.

    Why is Starmer so Unpopular?

    Starmer’s 2024 landslide was a paradox: a major electoral victory built on a weak foundation of public popularity. Furthermore, he has only continued to fall further out of favour due to several controversies, most notably his appointment of Peter Mandelson, the former Labour Party politician, lobbyist and diplomat who had continued his friendship with the infamous convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

    A YouGov poll shows that as of April this year, 70% of adults in the UK believe that Starmer is doing badly as Prime Minister.

    Alongside Starmers’ growing disapproval, there has been growing approval for Reform UK and the Green Party. The Green Party has seen a historic increase in membership under Zack Polanski’s leadership. Nigel Farage’s approval has decreased since 2024, but the party remains in a strong position to take several seats from Labour.

    Notably, there is a general lethargy towards Starmer because he has trapped himself in a centrist corner. A lot of people find him quite boring and do not know what he stands for, and so there is no enthusiasm towards him. His respective competitors, however, have a much clearer spot on the political spectrum. Love or hate what Zack Polanski and Nigel Farage stand for, but they very clearly stand for something, and this is proving to be a major advantage.

    It would be historic levels of success for what we traditionally refer to as ‘minor parties’ and signal the growing disillusionment with the two-party system. It is a peek at the future of the British government and even the potential outcome of the next general election. For example, Reform is estimated to win 2,260 councillors, and if they do, the potential for a Reform government is no longer unfathomable. 

    For so long, the two-party system has held steadfast. It has been hard to envision its end. As a result, for years, people have tactically voted for the two main parties to keep the other out of power because that was the only way the system could operate. 

    However, we now have a situation where people are so fed up with the system that they are willing to take a risk and abandon it. As a result, Reform and the Greens are likely to be very successful, and it will be Starmer who bears the consequences for Labour.

  • Hungary’s Democratic Transition and the Limits of EU Action on Palestine.

    Hungary’s Democratic Transition and the Limits of EU Action on Palestine.

    Written by Fatmah Alotaibi

    The veto that survived

    On 12 April 2026, Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, a conservative, centre to centre-right, pro-European populist party, won a major victory in Hungary’s parliamentary elections, bringing Viktor Orbán’s 16 years in power to an end. Magyar pledged to restore the rule of law, rebuild democratic institutions, and reintegrate Hungary into the European mainstream. One policy was left untouched. The day after his victory, Magyar told reporters he would block EU proposals to sanction Israel. Days later, he invited Benjamin Netanyahu to Budapest, a gesture sharpened by the fact that Netanyahu remains the subject of an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant and that Magyar has separately pledged to reverse Orbán’s withdrawal from the Court. Hungary is changing direction on almost everything. It is not changing direction on Israel.

    Orbán’s veto shield

    Fidesz, the Christian nationalist party led by Viktor Orbán, was re-elected in 2014. Following that re-election, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was restructured and renamed to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade. A new vice-undersecretariat covering ‘the South’, including the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, was given the same organisational weight as the entire Euro-Atlantic portfolio. Roughly 70% of the ministry’s staff were replaced with young, inexperienced recruits, a majority of whom were regarded as loyal to Fidesz. Political loyalty and personal ties to the party leadership, rather than diplomatic skills or technical expertise, became the currency of advancement. This was a foreign policy apparatus that answered to the party rather than to the professional diplomatic service or to the norms of the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy.

    The instrument Orbán fashioned from this apparatus was, above all, a veto. Under the Common Foreign and Security Policy unanimity rules, any single member state can block collective EU foreign policy action. Hungary used this power systematically to shield Israel from EU accountability: blocking sanctions on settlers implicated in violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, obstructing review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement under its Article 2 human rights clause, and, in April 2025, Hungary announced its planned withdrawal from the ICC on the same day Netanyahu, who was subject to an ICC arrest warrant, arrived in Budapest. As the European Council on Foreign Relations analysis observed, Hungary stood as ‘the main exception’ to a gradually consolidating European consensus on differentiating between Israel and its settlements: that is, on treating settlement activity and settler violence as conduct the EU will not underwrite.

    As the Heinrich Böll Stiftung’s study of Orbán’s alliance building concluded, these relationships were tied to parties, and political actors selected on grounds of interest and ideology rather than to durable state-to-state architecture. There is no pact or permanent bilateral mechanism that would outlast the government that created it, and many loyalist staff in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade hold their positions at the party’s discretion. A new government would keep Hungary’s formal EU veto power under unanimous decision-making in foreign policy, but it would not necessarily share the same political intent or supporting staff to use it in Israel’s favour. As a result, the effectiveness of that veto depends largely on Orbán remaining in power.

    What changes and what does not

    Magyar’s retention of the Israel veto is not an ideological inheritance but a low cost position within an existing coalition. The Arab Reform Initiative categorises Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, and Hungary as states that have backed Israel unconditionally, against a second group including Belgium, Ireland, and Spain pressing for stronger EU action on Palestinian self-determination. Magyar’s position is not isolated; he has signalled alignment with Germany rather than continuation of Orbán’s disruptive posture. The absence of a domestic cost is itself a product of the Orbán years: more than a decade of alignment with Netanyahu made pro-Israel positioning the Hungarian political default rather than a contested choice, and the regime’s own outlets framed it as part of a broader civilisational project against what Orbán has called ‘Wokeism and mass migration’. No Hungarian opposition formation, Tisza included, campaigned against that framing. Maintaining the veto brings no reward for Magyar, but it also incurs no cost.

    Magyar’s broader position supports this interpretation. He has pledged to reverse Orbán’s decision to withdraw from the ICC, bringing Hungary back under the Court that issued the arrest warrant for Netanyahu, and has also invited Netanyahu to Budapest. The division is clear: on international accountability institutions, Magyar appears to be moving closer to the European mainstream, but this is not matched in Hungary’s wider EU positioning. If the veto were a matter of principle, these positions would shift together, but they do not. This suggests the veto is driven more by political positioning, which continues to bring benefits.

    Orbán used Hungary as a disruptive force in the EU, including on Israel-related issues. This is unlikely to continue under a government that wants to align more with EU rules, meaning Hungary would act less independently and more in line with other member states.

    For those who wanted stronger EU action on Palestinian rights, there is little cause for optimism. Removing Hungary from the blocking coalition changes the balance but does not break it. Even under qualified majority voting, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, and Italy together represent roughly 36% of the EU’s population, which is enough to prevent collective measures. Remove Hungary from that grouping, and the remaining states still command significant blocking weight. Meanwhile, settlement expansion and settler violence in the Gaza Strip and West Bank continue to deepen, moving faster than the EU can respond.

    The lesson for the Arab world

    EU’s paralysis on Israel-Palestine predates Orbán and will outlast him; Hungary’s veto was symptomatic of that paralysis, not its cause. The temptation will be to see Magyar’s return to the EU’s mainstream position, rejoining the ICC, and a more moderate spoken tone as evidence that European policy on Palestine is changing. What is shifting is the tone. As the Al-Shabaka roundtable on the 2024-25 wave of European recognition of Palestinian statehood argues, European symbolic actions have often served as substitutes for real policy changes rather than leading to them. Arab governments can work with the EU as a whole and with member states that have gone beyond symbolic recognition.

    The clear conclusion from Orbán’s departure is that a very visible obstacle has gone, but a deeper structural limit has become more visible. The period after Orbán is likely to be calmer, but based on current evidence, it will not bring a real change in EU policy on Palestine.

    References

    Hawari, Y. and Buttu, D. (2025) Statehood without liberation: Europe’s response to genocide. Al-Shabaka: The Palestinian Policy Network, 14 August. Available at: https://al-shabaka.org/roundtables/statehood-without-liberation-europes-response-to-genocide/

    Arab Reform Initiative (2025). ‘Paralyzed into Irrelevance: How Divisions on Palestine Eroded the EU’s Normative Claims’. Available at: https://www.arab-reform.net/publication/paralyzed-into-irrelevance-how-divisions-on-palestine-eroded-the-eus-normative-claims/

    Dworkin, A. and Barnes-Dacey, J. (2020). ‘Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the southern neighbourhood’. European Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://ecfr.eu/publication/promoting-european-strategic-sovereignty-in-the-southern-neighbourhood/

    Faro Sarrats, M. (2025). ‘Hold the line: EU actions must counter Orban and Netanyahu’s defiance of the ICC’. European Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://ecfr.eu/article/hold-the-line-eu-actions-must-counter-orban-and-netanyahus-defiance-of-the-icc/

    Greilinger, G. (2026). ‘Hungary Replaced Orbán – But Can It Replace His Foreign Policy Legacy?’. Review of Democracy (CEU). Available at: https://revdem.ceu.edu/2026/04/16/hungary-replaced-orban/

    Heinrich Böll Stiftung / Political Capital (2023). ‘The building of Hungarian political influence – The Orbán regime’s efforts to export illiberalism’. Available at: https://cz.boell.org/en/2023/01/20/building-hungarian-political-influence-2

    Hungarian Conservative (2026). ‘The Strategic Significance of Hungary’s Israel Policy in Europe’. 10 January. Available at: https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/politics/strategic-significance-hungary-pro-israel-policy-europe/

    Lovatt, H. (2020). ‘The end of Oslo: A new European strategy on Israel-Palestine’. European Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-end-of-oslo-a-new-european-strategy-on-israel-palestine/

    Müller, P. (2022). ‘Populist Capture of Foreign Policy Institutions: The Orbán Government and the De-Europeanization of Hungarian Foreign Policy’. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jcms.13377

    Mustafa, T. (2025). ‘Expansion in the shadows: The dangers of Israeli aggression in the West Bank’. European Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://ecfr.eu/article/expansion-in-the-shadows-the-dangers-of-israeli-aggression-in-the-west-bank/

    The National (2026). ‘Hungary to stick with veto on EU Israel sanctions following Orban election defeat’. 13 April. Available at: https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/2026/04/13/hungary-to-stick-with-veto-on-eu-israel-sanctions-following-orban-election-defeat/

    The Times of Israel (2026). ‘Hungary’s PM-elect vows return to ICC, but stresses “special relationship” with Israel’. 13 April. Available at: https://www.timesofisrael.com/no-time-to-waste-pro-eu-magyar-vows-new-era-in-hungary-after-ousting-orban/

  • VICTORY FOR EUROPE AND DEMOCRACY?: HUNGARY OUST AN AUTOCRAT

    VICTORY FOR EUROPE AND DEMOCRACY?: HUNGARY OUST AN AUTOCRAT

    In the historic election that saw record turnout, autocrat Viktor Orbán was ousted after 16 years, and opposition leader Péter Magyar won a landslide victory. 

    The results, based on more than 98% of counted votes, put his Magyar Tisza party on course for an incredible 138 seats, with Orbán’s Fidesz on 55 and the far-right Our Homeland on six. 

    Following the victory, Péter Magyar told a crowd of his jubilant supporters, “We did it,”… “Together we overthrew the Hungarian regime.”

    This election was not between the traditional left-right dichotomy, but between democracy and autocracy. Magyar is himself a conservative who had once been part of Orbán’s circle. However, like many Hungarians, he became disillusioned with the direction the autocrat was taking the country. As a result, he gained support across the political spectrum in his bid to undo the damage and restore democracy.

    What had Orban done?

    During Orbán’s 16 years of rule, he restructured Hungary’s state institutions, limiting the powers of the constitutional court, reducing the number of parliamentary seats from 386 to 199 and redrawing district lines to benefit his party, expanding executive influence over the judiciary and taking control of and censoring the media. 

    On the international stage, he has isolated Hungary from Europe by pursuing a sovereigntist and eurosceptic foreign policy. He was an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and regularly blocked funds to Ukraine and opposed sanctions against Russia. 

    Sky News Moscow correspondent Ivor Bennett described Mr Orban as a “Russian Trojan horse acting in Moscow’s interest”, whom EU leaders will be glad to see the back of. 

    He was also a close ally of President Donald Trump and has been a model for other far-right figures across Europe and the US, hence the endorsements of these leaders, including an official visit by the US vice-president, JD Vance, just days before the election. Orbán’s government also frequently clashed with the EU over judicial independence, migration, and LGBTQ+ rights. 

    What was Magyar promising?

    Magyar ran a campaign promising to crack down on corruption, repair Hungary’s dwindling healthcare system, and lower the cost of living. He also promised to distance the country from Ukraine and restore ties with the EU and Ukraine. He took his campaign around villages, town squares and cities, rallying Hungarians who had enough of the corruption. 

    He said Hungary would “never again be a country without consequences” and promised to establish a national asset recovery office that would ensure the “political and economic criminals” who “stole from the country” would be held responsible.

    Orbán’s campaign, on the other hand, centred on the Ukraine war. His main tactic was stoking fear that the country could be dragged into the Ukraine war if Fidesz did not win. This, however, proved insufficient as most Hungarian voters were no longer afraid that the country could be drawn into the conflict: according to polls by the independent political research institute Policy Solutions, the number of Hungarians who fear they could be dragged into the war has halved in recent years.

    Why is this important?

    This is a blow to the wider far-right movement across Europe. It is a warning to those groups that policies of hate and division are limited: they will run out of enemies to defeat and lose the trust of voters who aren’t receiving any benefits from their rule. Over time, the focus shifts and the leader becomes subject to more scrutiny. Eventually, it becomes clear that their policies aren’t tools to help the people but to consolidate their own power and erode the institutions that hold them accountable. Therefore, it signals to Orbán’s admirers on the right that rhetoric can only get them so far; if their actions are detrimental to the people, their power will run out. 

    This is a major victory, not just for Magyar but for democracy. It shows that the brand of far-right politics that devalues and erodes liberal democracy is going out of fashion. Magyar himself wasn’t exactly the perfect upstanding candidate, as mentioned above; he was a part of Orbán’s circle up until 2024. Additionally, he has his own history of controversies, which include domestic violence charges. He wasn’t a candidate on the opposite side of the spectrum, promising left-wing socialist policies; rather, he was someone who, like many Hungarians, had realised that enough was enough. This really puts into perspective just how detrimental Orbán’s rule was, and how desperate the Hungarian people were for change. 

    The road will not be easy, and there is no guarantee that it will be successful. Democracy will not be restored overnight. However, the result is a starting point; it’s a genuine chance to undo past mistakes and shows that perceived unlimited power has its limits.